TimeformUS Belmont at the Big A Horses in Focus for Sept. 23, 2022


Race 2: Boss Cara (#2)

Dame Cinco’s (#6) stats are the favorite here as she starts her first claim for Jose Camejo, who is 15 to 46 (33 percent, $2.89 ROI) with that move over the past five years. She earned a strong speed figure last time around, but I didn’t like the way she swept through the stretch while beating a low group. It’s not clear if she’s sprinting as efficiently as she’s going long, and lots of other speeds have been signed. One of her main rivals is the beautiful Karen (#7), who is getting significant class relief after facing a superior group of New York-bred allowance enemies last time. She ran poorly in her return from layoffs, but was compromised due to a stumble. I wouldn’t be surprised if she does better against this soft field for a recently fired barn. My top pick is Boss Cara (#2). She also comes out with a poor effort, but was miserably overtaken in that open N1X allowance position. Now she’s moving to a realistic location, and a lot of momentum has been signed to set up her late run. He earned competitive speed figures against tough company two and three backs and should charge late if Eric cancels can work a trip. The price is also reasonable considering the low-profile connection.

::Get the TimeFormUS PP for these races at the Big A in Belmont

Race 4: Big Engine (#8)

This New York-bred alternative contender definitely has some momentum signed, which certainly doesn’t hurt the prospect of potential favorite Who’s Who That’s Me (#1). He seems quite logical with his runner-up finish at this level last time, but his form is pretty exposed at this point and I’m not sure the six furlong cut helps him. He’s somewhere in my game, but I thought others might offer a better value. The two fastest starting speed types in this race are drawn just outside it. The excellent time (#3) favorite held up very well for third last time, but this time he would have to deal with the silly ghost (#2) at the front end. That Rudy Rodriguez apprentice seems like a menace to wire to the field. He fought brilliantly the last time against tough company despite being overtaken by a classy enemy. He assesses being handled aggressively from the inside and can go back in the right direction after a downturn. The majority partner (#6) should also be placed forward, but at least he is attracted to the outside. He was even more impressive by a five-length margin, defeating N1X foes last time, as he contested at a much faster pace before opening on the field. He is progressing in class, but is in great form right now. The closest I find most interesting is the Big Engine (#8). His recent look has been a bit spotty, but he showed signs of life in the past, closing in behind a couple of misogynists claiming to be classy. He had to be placed in the sub-24 final quarter to finish third that day, his best performance since winning a race here last February. Maybe he’s changing things up for a barn that looks like he’s waking up from his spa meltdown. Trevor McCarthy has had a good ride on him in the past and has kept Mt.

Race 7: Constitution Advocate (#5)

Chad Brown is about to beat The Apprentice Orchestration (#7) as he makes his second start from the layoff. He was doing well at this level last time around, and I’ve always thought he’s the kind of guy who would appreciate this kind of stretch-out in the distance. He is very logical, but I doubt that he will pay a very high price for these connections. He finished only one nose in front of Friday’s opponent Shawdyshawdyshawdy (#8) when they met on July 30. He validated his superior form when he ran well for second behind the gate-to-wire winner last time. However, the added ground is a new obstacle. There are some 3-year-olds in this area who are moving on to face older rivals, and I think a couple of them need strong consideration. My top pick is the long-standing Constitution Advocate (#5). This colt showed some affinity for the turf when he finished third in his first attempt on the grass in July. He had a good ground-saving trip that day, but was doing well in the end. Last time the result was not as positive, but that day he just got the wrong trip. He rose to rank in the early stages and was forced to run extremely wide around both turns during a time when the rail was the best place on the inner course. It’s better than it looks and doesn’t give the impression that the extra distance will be a problem. The analogy (#10) is another 3-year-old kid who was compromised last time by an elaborate trip on the inner course in Saratoga. He’s had a few prior races to put him in the mix, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a change in strategy with Flavian Pratt climbing to a more aggressive style.



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